In October 2012, CRUK press released this report accusing tobacco companies of lying about the level of illicit trade.
Rates of tobacco smuggling into the UK have fallen despite earlier claims from the tobacco industry that tax rises would prompt an increase in the illicit trade, official figures show.
An estimated nine per cent of cigarettes consumed in the UK in 2010/11 were illicit, compared with 11 per cent in the previous year, according to HM Revenue & Customs.
Robin Hewings, Cancer Research UK's tobacco policy manager, commented: "The tobacco industry claims that cigarette smuggling is 'booming', 'set to grow' and that the UK is becoming the European 'hotspot'."
"Today's figures show the opposite. This is yet another instance of the tobacco industry making claims that turn out not to be true."Deborah Arnott chipped in too.
She added: "Once again it is clear that there is no reason to believe tobacco industry propaganda about the relationship between illicit trade, tobacco taxes, plain packaging or other tobacco control measures."As I mentioned at the time, they were all very aware that what they were saying was just ad hominem based on old data. One might even say they knew they were lying themselves ... unless I'm being harsh and they're merely stupid.
I think you can see the problem there, can't you? Yes, the figures are almost two years out of date.
Since then, we have had two budgets. In 2011, duty was raised by 50p per pack and earlier this year, by a further 37p per pack.
It looks like [the tobacco industry] were entirely correct, because the latest figures - you know, not two year old ones - show exactly that.
THE trade in illicit cigarettes has exploded in the past year - with nearly 16.5 per cent of all fags now fake or counterfeit.
Shock figures last night revealed the black market rise - and piled pressure on to ministers. The proportion of “illicit” cigarettes smoked in the UK has soared by almost a FIFTH over the last 12 months, up from 13.8 to 16.4 per cent.
That looks like confirmation that the illicit market was 'set to grow' and that it is now 'booming', wouldn't you agree?The senile Sydney stuff-up was especially cocky back then, of course.
Oh dear. Looks like the mathematical genius got his figures wrong again because UK tobacco tax rises were very definitely followed by rises in 'illegal' tobacco use in 2012. We know this because the government has now categorically admitted it.
From the BBC:
Tobacco smuggling: MPs criticise 'lack of action'
The number of illicit cigarettes smoked in the UK rose by 49% to a billion in 201249%? That makes the figure of 16.5% a massive under-estimate, doesn't it? The only thing "untrue" - according to Cancer Research UK - about the tobacco industry's warnings is that they weren't alarming enough!
Naturally, politicians are very keen to blame anyone but themselves, they're hardly scrupulous types who will hold their hand up to making mistakes after all. So therefore they will never admit that smokers buying elsewhere in a free trade EU zone has anything whatsoever to do with sky high taxation imposed by them, but that's how this obscene anti-smoking circle jerk works.
Politicians lie; fake charities lie; anti-smoking lobbyists lie; and then they all say that the tobacco industry is dishonest.
So, since we now know the truth about 2012's illicit figures, and we know that CRUK were entirely wrong about them ... and the tobacco industry entirely correct, if anything, the tobacco control lobby should be retracting their 2012 comments and apologising (a million to one chance, I know).
And considering what we know about their previous baseless smears, why should anyone trust Cancer Research UK now?